Drawdown Recovery Calculator
How much does an investment have to gain to recover a loss, and how long have real market declines taken to heal?
A 50% loss needs a 100% gain to get back to even. This tool shows the break-even gain for any loss, how long recovery takes at a return you choose, and the record of every S&P 500 decline of 20% or more since 1871.
Results describe arithmetic and history, not a forecast.
CALCULATOR
Enter the loss.
The loss is measured from the highest value the investment reached. Recovery means returning to that same peak value, before inflation.
RESULTS
Recovering from a -30.0% loss
THE ASYMMETRY
Losses and gains
are not mirror images.
A gain is measured on a smaller base after a loss. That is why the gain needed to recover rises slowly for small losses and explodes for large ones.
| Loss | Gain needed to break even | Years at 9.4% a year |
|---|---|---|
| -10% | 11.1% | 1.2 |
| -20% | 25.0% | 2.5 |
| -25% | 33.3% | 3.2 |
| -30% | 42.9% | 4.0 |
| -40% | 66.7% | 5.7 |
| -50% | 100.0% | 7.7 |
| -60% | 150.0% | 10.2 |
| -75% | 300.0% | 15.4 |
| -90% | 900.0% | 25.6 |
THE RECORD
Every S&P 500 decline
of 20% or more.
Measured on the dividends-reinvested index, most recent first. The deepest was -81.8% from Sep 1929 to Jun 1932, and it took until Jan 1945 to regain the peak.
| Peak | Bottom | Decline | Peak to bottom | Bottom to recovery | Back to peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | -49.0% | 1 yr 5 mo | 3 yr 5 mo | Aug 2012 |
| Aug 2000 | Feb 2003 | -41.6% | 2 yr 6 mo | 3 yr 8 mo | Oct 2006 |
| Aug 1987 | Dec 1987 | -26.0% | 4 mo | 1 yr 5 mo | May 1989 |
| Jan 1973 | Dec 1974 | -39.2% | 1 yr 11 mo | 1 yr 7 mo | Jul 1976 |
| Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | -25.3% | 1 yr 6 mo | 9 mo | Mar 1971 |
| Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | -21.2% | 6 mo | 10 mo | Apr 1963 |
| Sep 1929 | Jun 1932 | -81.8% | 2 yr 9 mo | 12 yr 7 mo | Jan 1945 |
| Oct 1919 | Aug 1921 | -23.0% | 1 yr 10 mo | 8 mo | Apr 1922 |
| Nov 1916 | Dec 1917 | -27.9% | 1 yr 1 mo | 1 yr 5 mo | May 1919 |
| Sep 1906 | Nov 1907 | -33.9% | 1 yr 2 mo | 1 yr 1 mo | Dec 1908 |
| Sep 1902 | Oct 1903 | -25.7% | 1 yr 1 mo | 1 yr 1 mo | Nov 1904 |
| Jan 1893 | Aug 1893 | -25.1% | 7 mo | 4 yr | Aug 1897 |
| Sep 1882 | Jan 1885 | -21.5% | 2 yr 4 mo | 10 mo | Nov 1885 |
| Mar 1876 | Jun 1877 | -33.1% | 1 yr 3 mo | 1 yr 8 mo | Feb 1879 |
AFTER INFLATION
Purchasing power tells a longer story.
Adjusted for inflation, the list changes. Some declines that look mild in dollars were severe in purchasing power. The longest round trip ran from Aug 2000 to May 2013, about 13 years.
| Peak | Bottom | Decline | Peak to bottom | Bottom to recovery | Back to peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | Oct 2022 | -24.5% | 11 mo | 1 yr 5 mo | Mar 2024 |
| Aug 2000 | Mar 2009 | -51.8% | 8 yr 7 mo | 4 yr 2 mo | May 2013 |
| Aug 1987 | Dec 1987 | -26.7% | 4 mo | 1 yr 8 mo | Aug 1989 |
| Jan 1973 | Dec 1974 | -50.1% | 1 yr 11 mo | 10 yr 1 mo | Jan 1985 |
| Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | -31.7% | 1 yr 6 mo | 2 yr 5 mo | Nov 1972 |
| Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | -21.8% | 6 mo | 11 mo | May 1963 |
| Apr 1946 | Feb 1948 | -35.4% | 1 yr 10 mo | 2 yr 8 mo | Oct 1950 |
| Feb 1937 | Apr 1942 | -48.3% | 5 yr 2 mo | 3 yr | Apr 1945 |
| Sep 1929 | Jun 1932 | -76.8% | 2 yr 9 mo | 4 yr 5 mo | Nov 1936 |
| Nov 1916 | Dec 1920 | -47.1% | 4 yr 1 mo | 3 yr 8 mo | Aug 1924 |
| Jun 1911 | Dec 1914 | -20.5% | 3 yr 6 mo | 10 mo | Oct 1915 |
| Sep 1906 | Nov 1907 | -36.7% | 1 yr 2 mo | 1 yr 6 mo | May 1909 |
| Aug 1902 | Oct 1903 | -26.2% | 1 yr 2 mo | 1 yr 3 mo | Jan 1905 |
| May 1892 | Jul 1893 | -23.0% | 1 yr 2 mo | 2 yr | Jul 1895 |
| Jun 1876 | Jun 1877 | -28.5% | 1 yr | 9 mo | Mar 1878 |
READ BEFORE USING
What monthly data smooths over.
The history uses Robert Shiller's monthly S&P data, where each month's level is an average of daily closes. Daily lows were deeper, so some declines fall just short of 20% here: the 2020 crash measures −18.9% and the 2022 bear market −19.3% on a monthly-average, dividends-reinvested basis.
The recovery calculator assumes a steady annual return. Real markets recover unevenly, and new declines can begin before an old one is repaired. Taxes, fees and withdrawals are not included; withdrawing money during a decline makes recovery take longer.
RELATED TOOL
See the whole period, not just the decline.
The S&P 500 Return Calculator shows what an investment earned between any two months, including its worst decline along the way.
Open the S&P 500 Return Calculator